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COMMERCIAL MRO 50 APRIL 2017 AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE TECHNOLOGY ver the last few years the growth in commercial aviation and demand for new ranges of aircraft have also created concerns about capacity constraints in the supply chain as well as the ability of mainte- nance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) organizations to meet their customers' ever higher expectations for quality and delivery. At the same time airlines and aircraft operators have become leaner and are demanding higher quality and reliability, conscious that every hour their aircraft are grounded, revenue is lost. Rolls- Royce's newly launched Zero Defects program reflects these changes in the market. It draws on the company's heritage of striving for perfection in everything they do and demands this mind-set from its suppliers if they want to continue to be part of the Rolls-Royce supply chain. Customers are also increasingly focused on sustain- ability, which has led to higher emphasis on maintaining existing assets and enabling repair loops, to maximise in-service life rather than replac- ing with new. For parts suppliers and supply chain providers, the commercial drivers are to manage inventory and the associated working capital while meeting both manufacturing and MRO capacity. Accurately forecasting and meeting a customer's demand for parts at the right time and in the right place is a key area they have to address if a Zero Defects service is to be achieved. Forecasting also has to take into account the contrasting demand profiles of manufacturing, which is predictable, and MROs and the aftermarket, which is more unpredictable and thus has a different set of challenges to delivery of high levels of off-the-shelf availability. A PwC report "Spares forecasting — a commercial aviation perspective on value chain maturity and best practices" conducted in 2011 identified two key drivers for improving demand forecasting: the need for more effective collaboration and sharing of information (e.g. fleet data, engineering change orders, part reliability, service bulletins, etc.) across the supply chain; and the aggregation of software enabling capabilities to ensure best practice for bills of materials (BOMs), in the spares planning process. Meeting ever-increasing customer expectations requires robust forecasting and inventory solutions By Michelle Carter FORECASTING PARTS SUPPLY DEMAND PATTONAIR STOCK room IMAGES COURTESY OF PATTONAIR