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www.AviationPros.com 47 Boeing predicts a total demand for 1,440 converted freighters over the next 20 years — 1,040 standard- body aircraft and 400 wide-bodies. • A plus 0.6 percent increase in Latin America-Europe air cargo; • A fall off of 4.1 percent from Latin America to North America; • A gain of 0.6 percent between Africa and Europe; • A 4.1 percent decrease between South Asia and Europe; • An 11.1 percent rise between the Middle East and Europe; • A growth of 5.0 percent in Intra Europe air cargo. Among aircraft handling short to mid-range missions are Boeing's 737-300 and -400s. PEMCO specializes in these conversions. Boeing says its 737-300SF carry up to 19 metric tons of cargo, sport as many as 10 pallet positions, and can fly as many as 1,600 nautical miles nonstop. Contrast those capabilities with the 737-800BCF which can haul up to 23.9 metric tons of air cargo on routes of up to 1,995 nautical miles. The -800BCF boasts 12 pallet positions. The battle between older 737-300s and -400s on one hand and newer 737-700s and -800s on the other is being closely watched. Smiley says, "What [opera- tors] look at is the total cost of operation. So, you can operate the 737-300 and 737-400 — even though they cost more per hour to [fly], the acquisition cost of get- ting that aircraft and the conversion cost may make it beneficial vs. a new 737-700 or -800, because of the lower utilization." OK, but just how much of this operational advantage is due to the current cost of jet fuel? It's not dirt cheap, but it's still sane. Smiley says, "[We] did an analysis of this a few years ago and we determined that for narrow- body aircraft fuel has to be about US$2.00 per gallon before the new generation of narrow-bodies become more efficient … Fuel has just now crept back up to about US $1.50. It's still got a ways to go." PEMCO's Andrews says the older-generation air- frames his company converts average between 35,000 and 45,000 cycles when they roll into the hangar. The No. 1 driver among his customers is aircraft acquisition cost, coupled with the consideration of "What they've got to put back in the aircraft so that it will fly another 10 years." The market for passenger to freighter conversion is firmly focused on the 737 family, with the -800 the most attractive conversion candidate just now. Smiley says the Seven-Threes are supplemented by other conversions: some of the remaining 757s and 767s as well as the first batch of A320s coming off INSIDE PEMCO'S hangar at Tampa Florida. PEMCO AviationPros.com/company/10134757